Austin Dominates in Center South Region

Austin dominates the accompanying demographic and economic tables covering the U.S. Center South Region. The capital of Texas ranks number one in four of the eight charts. In other words, it’s leading the pack half the time.

2016-07-22-Center-South-Cities-Graphic

Dallas-Ft. Worth also shows well, with two first-place finishes in the remaining four tables.

Houston, however, has fallen back, as its large contingent of energy-focused firms has had to contend with downsizings brought on by the steep decline in the global price of oil.

Just the same, it’s New Orleans that ultimately appears last in the composite ranking.

To travel to that overall listing, however, we must first traverse the following terrain.

Population size: Metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) are more than city cores. They also encompass surrounding areas (e.g., suburbs) that feature a lot of back and forth commuting for work and residency. Dallas-Ft. Worth (7.1 million) is credited with the largest citizen count in the Center South Region, but its advantage over Houston (6.7 million) is minor, less than half a million. Phoenix (4.6 million) is also a big population center. The other four cities are notably smaller – San Antonio, 2.4 (million); Austin, 2.0; Oklahoma City, 1.4; and New Orleans, 1.3.

Seven Cities (MSAs) in
Center South Region Ranked by:

Population Estimates  
As at July 1 2015  
   
Millions  
1 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 7.103  
2 Houston, TX 6.657  
3 Phoenix, AZ 4.575  
4 San Antonio, TX 2.384  
5 Austin, TX 2.001  
6 Oklahoma City, OK 1.358  
7 New Orleans, LA 1.263  
   

When two or more cities have the same number in a table, their ranking is a tie.

Data sources: Census Bureau, NAR, NAHB, BLS, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CREA / Chart: ConstructConnect™.

Population change: Think of Austin as that cartoon character, ‘the roadrunner’, with respect to population change. Austin’s +3.09% annual average population increase in the latest two years has left all other cities in America in its dust. Although it should quickly be acknowledged that the four major cities in Texas hold all the top positions in this category in the Center South Region. New Orleans (+0.86%) is at the bottom. But it could be doing worse. There are two cities in America undergoing population declines − Cleveland, -0.10%, and Pittsburgh, -0.18%. 

Seven Cities (MSAs) in
Center South Region Ranked by:

Annual Average Population Growth,
 Latest 2 Year, 2013 to 2015  
 
Annual Avg.   
1 Austin, TX 3.09%  
2 Houston, TX 2.56%  
3 San Antonio, TX 2.20%  
4 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 2.06%  
5 Phoenix, AZ 1.98%  
6 Oklahoma City, OK 1.42%  
7 New Orleans, LA 0.86%  
   

When two or more cities have the same number in a table, their ranking is a tie.

Data sources: Census Bureau, NAR, NAHB, BLS, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CREA / Chart: ConstructConnect™.

Housing Starts: As reported by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), Dallas-Ft. Worth has recorded a nation-leading number of residential building permits so far this year, 21,857 units. (NAHB pulls its ‘permits’ data from the Census Bureau.) Houston’s 19,184 units is the runner-up, staying in front of Atlanta’s 15,927 units. Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston and Atlanta are each accounting for more new home groundbreakings than New York or Los Angeles. Let’s not fail to mention Toronto (19,481 units through June) and Vancouver (14,840 units) in this hyper-active grouping as well. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is the source of housing data north of the border.  

Seven Cities (MSAs) in
Center South Region Ranked by:

Year-to-date Residential  
Building Permits (through May 16)  
 
Units  
1 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX        21,857  
2 Houston, TX        19,184  
3 Phoenix, AZ        10,790  
4 Austin, TX          8,834  
5 San Antonio, TX          3,883  
6 Oklahoma City, OK          3,138  
7 New Orleans, LA          1,140  
   

When two or more cities have the same number in a table, their ranking is a tie.

Data sources: Census Bureau, NAR, NAHB, BLS, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CREA / Chart: ConstructConnect™.

Change in homebuilding activity: Dallas-Ft. Worth and Houston may have large numbers of new homes underway, but their year-over-year percentage changes play second fiddle to Phoenix (+19.0%), Oklahoma City (+17.0%) and San Antonio (+12.0%). Houston (-18.0%) is the only city in the Center South Region to be anchored with a decline at this time.

Seven Cities (MSAs) in
Center South Region Ranked by:

Residential Building Permits  
May 2016 Ytd vs. May 2015 Ytd  
 
% Change  
1 Phoenix, AZ 19.0%  
2 Oklahoma City, OK 17.0%  
3 San Antonio, TX 12.0%  
4 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 6.0%  
5 Austin, TX 5.0%  
6 New Orleans, LA 4.0%  
7 Houston, TX -18.0%  
   

When two or more cities have the same number in a table, their ranking is a tie.

Data sources: Census Bureau, NAR, NAHB, BLS, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CREA / Chart: ConstructConnect™.

Resale Housing Prices: Austin ($269,700) leads the regional ranking of median single-family resale home prices. Next place goes to Phoenix ($223,100). In seventh spot, Oklahoma City ($141,000) appears to be presenting purchase opportunities.    

Seven Cities (MSAs) in
Center South Region Ranked by:

Q1 16 Median Sales Price of  
Existing Single-family Home  
 
$s (USD)  
1 Austin, TX $269,700  
2 Phoenix, AZ $223,100  
3 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX $210,100  
4 Houston, TX $208,000  
5 San Antonio, TX $195,500  
6 New Orleans, LA $169,500  
7 Oklahoma City, OK $141,000  
   

When two or more cities have the same number in a table, their ranking is a tie.

Data sources: Census Bureau, NAR, NAHB, BLS, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CREA / Chart: ConstructConnect™.

Change in Home Prices: The only year-over-year double-digit percentage increase in the sales price of existing homes, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), has occurred in New Orleans (+10.0%). Housing stock appreciation in the other cities is mainly between about +6.0% and +9.0%, although Houston (+3.8%) and Oklahoma City (+3.2%) haven’t managed to meet those strides.

Seven Cities (MSAs) in
Center South Region Ranked by:

Q1 2016 Y/Y Single-family   
Home Price Change   
 
% Change  
1 New Orleans, LA 10.0%  
2 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 9.1%  
3 Phoenix, AZ 8.2%  
4 Austin, TX 7.9%  
5 San Antonio, TX 5.8%  
6 Houston, TX 3.8%  
7 Oklahoma City, OK 3.2%  
   

When two or more cities have the same number in a table, their ranking is a tie.

Data sources: Census Bureau, NAR, NAHB, BLS, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CREA / Chart: ConstructConnect™.

Employment Growth: Austin’s most recent year-over-year rate of employment growth has been quite rapid, +3.9%. Only Orlando (+4.2%) among all other American cities has rung up a more impressive advance. Dallas-Ft. Worth (+3.7%) has also done well on the job-creation front. Employment in Houston (0.0%) has stayed flat. In New Orleans (-0.3%), it has dropped slightly.

Seven Cities (MSAs) in
Center South Region Ranked by:

Latest Month, Y/Y Jobs Change  
Fastest to Slowest (May 2016)  
 
% Change  
1 Austin, TX 3.9%  
2 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 3.7%  
3 Phoenix, AZ 3.1%  
4 San Antonio, TX 2.9%  
5 Oklahoma City, OK 1.1%  
6 Houston, TX 0.2%  
7 New Orleans, LA -0.3%  
   

When two or more cities have the same number in a table, their ranking is a tie.

Data sources: Census Bureau, NAR, NAHB, BLS, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CREA / Chart: ConstructConnect™.

Jobless Rate: Austin again leads the Center South Region in one final category, unemployment rates. Its 2.9% level is lowest among all America’s major cities and is hence highly favorable.   The country-wide jobless rate is currently 4.9%. Houston’s out-of-work figure has moved up to 4.8%, but it still hasn’t deteriorated to the 5.5% number being generated in New Orleans. 

Seven Cities (MSAs) in
Center SouthRegion Ranked by:

Latest Month Jobless Rate,   
Lowest to Highest (May 2016)  
 
% Level  
1 Austin, TX 2.9%  
2 San Antonio, TX 3.4%  
3 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 3.5%  
4 Oklahoma City, OK 4.2%  
5 Phoenix, AZ 4.7%  
6 Houston, TX 4.8%  
7 New Orleans, LA 5.5%  
   

When two or more cities have the same number in a table, their ranking is a tie.

Data sources: Census Bureau, NAR, NAHB, BLS, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CREA / Chart: ConstructConnect™.

Overall Rating: An additional composite or overall ranking – based on the individual orderings in all but one of the aforementioned demographic and economic tables (i.e., population size was omitted) − has been calculated to ascertain the relative performances of the seven cities in the Center South Region.

From brightest to dimmest, the results from this extra step are as follows: (1) Austin; (2) Dallas-Ft. Worth; (3) Phoenix; (4) San Antonio; (5) Houston; (6) Oklahoma City; and (7) New Orleans.

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