There’s nothing complicated about today’s article. It simply examines, with the aid of the accompanying table, the latest 12-month performances of the share prices of nearly 40 well-known companies.
The 39 firms have been arranged alphabetically according to their primary industrial activity. Not all sectors are represented. One obvious omission is ‘health care’. CVS and Walgreens-Boots under ‘General Retail’ will have to serve as proxies.
But there has been an attempt to capture companies with direct or indirect (i.e., through capital spending on manufacturing facilities, retail space, etc.) ties to construction.
For each company, the two right-hand, percentage-change columns compare the current share price with: (1) the latest 12-month low; and (2) the latest 12-month high.
With respect to 12-month lows, percentage changes that are 50.0% or more have been shaded lightly in gray.
With respect to 12-month highs, percentage changes that are -20.0% or more steeply negative have been shaded in red.
Percentage changes that are only off by -5.0% or less compared with their 12-month highs appear in green.
The first point to notice from the data is that almost all the latest 12-month lows occurred last year. Only nine of the 37 companies have experienced latest 12-month lows in 2018.
Furthermore, 25 of the 37 lows that occurred last year happened in August, at the beginning of the latest 12-month period.
As for latest 12-month highs, 34 out of 37 of those have occurred this year, in 2018.
This pattern of most lows occurring last year and almost all highs coming this year suggests a desirable trend of growing value in the stock markets. It should also be noted, though, that this year’s month with the most highs (12) has been January, indicating that the upward momentum in equity prices dissipated somewhat after the start of 2018.
Eight of the 37 companies – Armstrong (+55.4%); Fluor (+52.6%); ConocoPhillips (+64.2%); Valero (+71.6%); Amazon (+100.5%); Micron (+59.4%); Netflix (+90.9%); and Twitter (+104.7%) − have current share values that are 50% or greater than their latest 12-months lows. There are another three that barely miss the +50% benchmark – BestBuy (+49.2%); Costco (+49.1%); and Microsoft (also +49.1%).
Four of the eight strongest advances have been among high-tech firms. Two companies have seen a doubling in their share values versus their latest 12-month lows, Amazon (+100.5%) and Twitter (+104.7%).
Turning to the red shaded boxes, there are 11 companies with current share prices that are down by 20.0% or more versus their latest 12-month highs. Only three of those companies are down by significantly more than -20.0% − Ford (-27.8%); Haliburton (-29.7%); and Twitter (-30.0%).
There are three companies, all in the high-tech sector, with present share prices that are both up by more than 50.0% versus their near-term lows and down by more than 20.0% versus their near-time highs – Micron, Netflix and Twitter. They’ve been on a roller-coaster ride.
The true winners at this stage of the investing cycle, however, are those companies with percentage changes that are in green boxes.
The green boxes have been reserved for share prices that are either at or close to (i.e., within -5.0% of) their latest 12-month highs. There are 11 such companies – Louisiana-Pacific (-2.8%); Armstrong (-1.5%); Sherwin-Williams (-1.3%); Best Buy (-0.4%); Costco (0.0%); ConocoPhillips (-4.3%); Amazon (-1.9%); Apple (0.0%); Microsoft (-2.9%); and Roper Technologies (-1.9%). (By way of disclaimer, ConstructConnect is a Roper Technologies’ company.)
Among those 10, three are standouts. Costco and Apple are currently at their latest 12-month highs and Best Buy has pulled back by only a fraction (-0.4%).
August 17, 2018
Per cent change, | ||||||||||||
Aug 17 2018 versus: | ||||||||||||
Latest 12-month LOW | Latest 12-month HIGH | Aug 17 2018 | ||||||||||
(based on day’s closing value) | (based on day’s closing value) | (closing) | LOW | HIGH | ||||||||
Design services: | ||||||||||||
AECOM Technology Corp (ACM) | 30.47 | Aug 21 17 | 39.62 | Jan 29 18 | 32.91 | 8.0% | -16.9% | |||||
Aecon Group (ARE.TO) | 14.34 | Jun 5 & 6 18 | 20.00 | Jan 4 18 | 17.45 | 21.7% | -12.8% | |||||
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (SNC.TO) | 51.52 | Aug 21 17 | 60.82 | Jun 1 3 18 | 53.72 | 4.3% | -11.7% | |||||
Stantec Inc. (STN) | 24.20 | Mar 27 18 | 29.20 | Feb 1 18 | 25.55 | 5.6% | -12.5% | |||||
Construction on-site: | ||||||||||||
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) | 113.60 | Aug 21 17 | 170.89 | Jun 22 18 | 139.34 | 22.7% | -18.5% | |||||
Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (LPX) | 23.45 | Aug 23 17 | 31.06 | Apr 17 18 | 30.19 | 28.7% | -2.8% | |||||
Pulte Group Inc. (PHM) | 24.91 | Aug 24 17 | 35.15 | Jan 22 18 | 28.09 | 12.8% | -20.1% | |||||
United Rentals Inc. (URI) | 107.26 | Aug 25 17 | 189.40 | Mar 9 18 | 150.51 | 40.3% | -20.5% | |||||
Construction retail: | ||||||||||||
Armstrong World Industries (AWI) | 45.05 | Aug 23 17 | 71.05 | Aug 6 18 | 70.00 | 55.4% | -1.5% | |||||
Home Depot (HD) | 147.49 | Aug 18 17 | 207.23 | Jan 26 18 | 195.56 | 32.6% | -5.6% | |||||
Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW) | 72.61 | Aug 24 17 | 107.40 | Jan 26 18 | 97.98 | 34.9% | -8.8% | |||||
Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW) | 328.97 | Aug 18 17 | 449.03 | Jul 26 18 | 443.39 | 34.8% | -1.3% | |||||
General retail: | ||||||||||||
Best Buy (BBY) | 52.59 | Sep 20 17 | 78.78 | May 17 18 | 78.48 | 49.2% | -0.4% | |||||
Canadian Tire (CTC-A.TO) | 145.02 | Sep 5 17 | 182.40 | Aug 8 18 | 165.77 | 14.3% | -9.1% | |||||
Costco (COST) | 151.33 | Aug 24 17 | 225.68 | Aug 17 18 | 225.68 | 49.1% | 0.0% | |||||
CVS Caremark (CVS) | 60.60 | Mar 27 18 | 83.63 | Jan 29 18 | 73.68 | 21.6% | -11.9% | |||||
Walgreens Boots (WBA) | 59.70 | Jun 28 18 | 82.74 | Sep 12 17 | 69.99 | 17.2% | -15.4% | |||||
Walmart (WMT) | 78.03 | Aug 28 17 | 109.55 | Jan 29 18 | 97.85 | 25.4% | -10.7% | |||||
Motor vehicle: | ||||||||||||
Ford (F) | 9.45 | Aug 15 18 | 13.23 | Jan 12 18 | 9.55 | 1.1% | -27.8% | |||||
General Motors (GM) | 34.83 | Aug 18 17 | 46.48 | Oct 24 17 | 36.38 | 4.5% | -21.7% | |||||
Magna (MGA) | 46.10 | Aug 18 17 | 66.68 | May 21 18 | 54.61 | 18.5% | -18.1% | |||||
Tesla (TSLA) | 252.48 | Apr 2 18 | 385.00 | Sep 18 17 | 305.50 | 21.0% | -20.6% | |||||
Oilfield services: | ||||||||||||
Fluor Corp. (FLR) | 37.23 | Aug 21 17 | 61.61 | Jan 29 18 | 56.82 | 52.6% | -7.8% | |||||
Halliburton Co. (HAL) | 38.66 | Aug 22 17 | 56.83 | Jan 23 18 | 39.97 | 3.4% | -29.7% | |||||
Schlumberger (SLB) | 61.31 | Nov 16 17 | 79.79 | Jan 22 18 | 62.83 | 2.5% | -21.3% | |||||
Oil and gas companies: | ||||||||||||
ConocoPhillips (COP) | 42.50 | Aug 21 17 | 72.90 | Aug 7 18 | 69.77 | 64.2% | -4.3% | |||||
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) | 72.81 | Mar 28 18 | 89.07 | Feb 1 18 | 78.26 | 7.5% | -12.1% | |||||
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) | 64.70 | Aug 21 17 | 124.44 | Jun 4 18 | 111.00 | 71.6% | -10.8% | |||||
High-tech firms: | ||||||||||||
Alphabet/Google (GOOG) | 913.81 | Aug 28 17 | 1,268.33 | Jul 26 18 | 1,200.96 | 31.4% | -5.3% | |||||
Amazon (AMZN) | 938.60 | Sep 26 17 | 1,919.65 | Aug 14 18 | 1,882.22 | 100.5% | -1.9% | |||||
Apple Inc. (AAPL) | 150.55 | Sep 25 17 | 217.58 | Aug 17 18 | 217.58 | 44.5% | 0.0% | |||||
Facebook (FB) | 152.22 | Mar 27 18 | 217.50 | Jul 26 18 | 173.80 | 14.2% | -20.1% | |||||
IBM (IBM) | 137.48 | Jun 27 18 | 169.12 | Jan 18 18 | 146.06 | 6.2% | -13.6% | |||||
Intel Corp. (INTC) | 34.65 | Aug 22 & 28 17 | 57.08 | May 29 18 | 47.10 | 35.9% | -17.5% | |||||
Micron Technologies (MU) | 29.56 | Aug 21 17 | 62.62 | May 29 18 | 47.11 | 59.4% | -24.8% | |||||
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) | 72.15 | Aug 21 17 | 110.83 | Jul 25 18 | 107.58 | 49.1% | -2.9% | |||||
Netflix (NFLX) | 165.95 | Aug 25 17 | 418.97 | Jul 9 18 | 316.78 | 90.9% | -24.4% | |||||
Roper Technologies (ROP) | 227.79 | Aug 21 17 | 303.58 | Jul 26 18 | 297.88 | 30.8% | -1.9% | |||||
Twitter (TWTR) | 15.99 | Aug 18 17 | 46.76 | Jun 14 18 | 32.73 | 104.7% | -30.0% | |||||
Up by 50% or more from LOW | ||||||||||||
Down by 20% or more from HIGH | ||||||||||||
Within 5% of their 12-month HIGHS |
Table: ConstructConnect.
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